Many people have said that Ben Gordon would have to be an idiot not to take the Bulls offer and that he will never see that money again. Assuming the Bulls improve a bit, to around a .500 team, one would assume that if Gordon performs about the same as last year (18 PPG), he will get around the same offer. If he performs worse, he will get less, and if he performs better, he will get more.

There are two things that are big money makers in the NBA. Being a great all around big man and being a great scorer. There is something about the scoring average of a player, just the general PPG, that boosts their value so much in contract negotiations. 20 PPG seems to be the threshold that needs to be met to be a legit first option. When you begin getting in that 22-23 PPG territory, you begin looking like a lock for an allstar spot. When you start scoring over 25 PPG, people begin to look at you as one of the elite players in the game.

So this question should be posed, “Is Ben Gordon making a poor decision if he decides to take the qualifying offer?” If he has a real down year, and only scores something like 14 PPG, he will be looking at the MLE in a best case scenario.

If he scores 18 PPG again, he will probably looking at around the same. If he scores 20 PPG, he will begin getting paid around what Monta Ellis is making. If he scores 22 PPG, he should be looking at around the same amount that Iguodala just signed for. If he scores 25 PPG or more, he could very well be looking at a true max contract.

So the rewards of taking the qualifying offer are all there. If Gordon really thinks he is an all-star level player, and plans on bringing that type of game next year, he would be crazy not to take the qualifying offer. But if he is afraid that he is really the player that he showed up as last year, or fears that the Bulls coaching staff will cut his minutes, taking the qualifying offer no longer looks so good. So this seems at first look as a high risk, high reward situation.

Fortunately for Gordon, Vinny Del Negro said on the radio last week that Gordon would be welcomed with open arms and would be a big part of what the Bulls do. Vinny expects Gordon to want to prove himself next year, so Vinny will probably give him the minutes he deserves.

So based on this assumption that Gordon will get his playing time, how should we expect Ben Gordon to perform? Based on Ben Gordon’s statistical data from January of his 2nd season to April of his 4th season, I ran a simulation which simulates what Ben Gordon might score throughout the 2008-2009 NBA Season. I used from January of his 2nd season on, because in that January, Gordon clearly took his game up to another level. I ran the simulation 1,000 times.

Here are the raw results of what Ben Gordon averaged.

10 - 0.1%
11 - 0.5%
12 - 0.4%
13 - 0.3%
14 - 0.8%
15 - 2.2%
16 - 3.6%
17 - 4.8%
18 - 13.8%
19 - 33.0%
20 - 15.8%
21 - 14.4%
22 - 2.8%
23 - 4.5%
24 - 1.0%
25 - 0.3%
26 - 0.3%
27 - 0.1%
28 - 0.2%
29 - 0.4%
30 - 0.1%
31 - 0.2%
32 - 0.2%

Or in terms of likelihood Gordon achieves at least this PPG.

10 - 100%
11 - 99.9%
12 - 99.4%
13 - 99.0%
14 - 98.7%
15 - 97.9%
16 - 95.7%
17 - 92.1%
18 - 87.3%
19 - 73.5%
20 - 40.5%
21 - 24.7%
22 - 10.3%
23 - 7.5%
24 - 3.0%
25 - 2.0%
26 - 1.7%
27 - 1.4%
28 - 1.3%
29 - 1.1%
30 - 0.7%
31 - 0.6%
32 - 0.4%

So to simplify this a bit, lets look at the odds of Gordon decreasing, maintaining, or increasing his value.

Decreases (10-17 PPG) - 12.7%
Maintains (18-19 PPG) - 46.8%
Increases (20-32 PPG) - 40.3%

When looked at this way, it becomes clear that the qualifying offer is probably a good idea. Ben Gordon has a high chance of increasing his value, while a very low risk of decreasing his value.

Now let’s break these down into smaller categories.

Significantly Damages Value (10-15 PPG) - 4.3%

There is very little risk for Gordon to significantly damage his value. If he went down into this range of scoring, the MLE would be the absolute maximum that Ben Gordon would be able to get.

Slightly Damages Value (16-17 PPG) - 8.4%

Again, there is very little risk of Gordon even slightly damaging his value next season. This would drop him into that contract that is at the MLE as a minimum, but maybe a million or two million more.

Maintains Value (18-19 PPG) - 46.8%

This is the most likely scenario for Ben Gordon. This would put him in the range of what the Bulls are offering him at this time. So Gordon, if he maintains his value, should be looking at around $56-60 million.

Slightly Increases Value (20-21 PPG) - 30.2%

Ben Gordon has a pretty good chance to slightly improve his value. This would essentially mean returning to 2006-2007 form for Gordon. In the 2007 offseason, John Paxson offered Ben Gordon a contract worth $10 million a year. John Paxson thinks with extensions, players should take a pay cut for longterm security, so in reality, Paxson probably truly valued Gordon at around $11-12 million. If Gordon reaches this level, he should be making anywhere from Monta Ellis money ($66 million / 6 years) to Luol Deng money ($71 million / 6 years)

Significantly Increases Value (22-24 PPG) - 8.3%

The chances that Ben Gordon significantly increases his value is about the same as the chance that he slightly decreases his value. When Ben Gordon enters this range, he begins to look like a lock for an all-star spot, and all-star’s generally get paid more money. This is the Ben Gordon that many Bulls fans expected to show up for the 2007-2008 season. If Gordon reaches this level, he should be looking at Iguodala money ($80 million / 6 years).

Becomes a Max Player (25+ PPG) - 1.8%

If Ben Gordon begins to average more than 25 points a game, he should be looking at a max or near max deal. This volume of scoring would make Gordon one of the elite scorers in the game. While the chances of this are small, they are hardly impossible. Ben Gordon has a better chance of achieving this than the Bulls had of getting Derrick Rose in the NBA Draft.

So based on the simulation, which was based on Ben Gordon’s statistical data, all signs point to the qualifying offer being Ben Gordon’s best possible decision if the Bulls do not increase their offer. The odds of Gordon decreasing his value are small while the odds of him increasing his value are large.

Verdict: Ben Gordon should take the qualifying offer.