Ben Gordon will become a member of the Detroit Pistons come July 8th. As Gordon said in his parting comments on the Waddle and Silvy show, the writing was kind of on the wall. The situation of Gordon leaving the Bulls, and how he left the Bulls was entirely predictable, in fact, I did a pretty solid job predicting most of this mess. Here are a few posts that I made over the past year regarding the Gordon situation, that largely predicted most of what transpired.

Last August, I wrote about how the qualifying offer would be Gordon’s best bet. Here is an excerpt of that post:

Ben Gordon has little to lose taking the qualifying offer. He will only lose about $1.2 million next year if he takes the qualifying offer instead of the Bulls offer, which would be peanuts if he got the big extension he is looking for. If Carlos Boozer doesn’t opt out next summer, Gordon will be the top free agent on the market, so a big offer will likely come his way.

The Bulls need to start taking the Gordon situation more seriously, because if they continue to play hardball with him and end up disrespecting him, they will probably lose him to a conference rival next summer.

Carlos Boozer ended up opting out, and Ben Gordon became the top free agent on the market, and Gordon ended up being able to get the type of offer he was looking for.

Gordon also ended up going to a conference rival. I thought that the team that Gordon would end up with was the Miami Heat. Miami was projected to have some cap space this summer, which would allow them to make a lucrative offer to Gordon, but then the economic crisis happened, and instead of the salary cap growing to a little over $61 million, as projected, it ended up shrinking, leaving Miami with insufficient cap space to be competitive in signing Gordon. Once it became clear that Miami wouldn’t have significant cap space this summer, Riley took on the salary commitment of Jermaine O’neal for the 2008-2009 season. If the salary cap grew as expected, I think we would be talking about how Gordon signed with the Heat right now.

Detroit was somewhat similar to Miami, in that they got to witness Gordon stick it to their team first hand. In the 2007 playoffs, Gordon was phenomenal in the series against Miami, averaging 25.5 points and 5.5 assists per a game, leading the Bulls over the Heat in sweeping fashion. Similarly, the Pistons got to witness their demise at the hands of Gordon.

In November, Gordon had 18 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists against the Pistons, in a 104-98 Bulls loss. Back in February, on Johnny Red Kerr night, Ben Gordon scored 24 points and hit the four point game winner, giving the Bulls a 107-102 victory over the Pistons. In March, Gordon had 19 points and 6 assists against the Pistons. In April, Ben Gordon scored 19 points against the Pistons against, hitting the game winning layup for the Bulls in a 91-88 victory. With that loss, the Pistons were locked into the eighth seed, and their fate to face a very tough Cleveland team.

Teams remember guys who routinely torch them (Miami) or hit multiple game winners against them (New York, Detroit).

In September, I did a little statistical analysis using some of Gordon’s splits to determine whether the qualifying offer was a good idea for Gordon, coming to the verdict that yes, Gordon should take the qualifying offer.

A premise I used in that post was that a player’s value is largely determined by the base number in their PPG. Gordon’s base number of his PPG was 20. Here is what I wrote for the scoring tier Gordon ended up in last year:

Slightly Increases Value (20-21 PPG) - 30.2%

Ben Gordon has a pretty good chance to slightly improve his value. This would essentially mean returning to 2006-2007 form for Gordon. In the 2007 offseason, John Paxson offered Ben Gordon a contract worth $10 million a year. John Paxson thinks with extensions, players should take a pay cut for longterm security, so in reality, Paxson probably truly valued Gordon at around $11-12 million. If Gordon reaches this level, he should be making anywhere from Monta Ellis money ($66 million / 6 years) to Luol Deng money ($71 million / 6 years)

I predicted that if Gordon reached this scoring tier, he would be making $11 million a year to just under $12 million a year.

I don’t quite understand the Bulls fans are shocked that the Pistons offered Ben Gordon $11 million per a year. I think too many Bulls fans had this warped view of Gordon’s value, that was based on the Bulls’ organizations lowballing of Gordon last summer, and writers like Sam Smith and K.C. Johnson saying that Gordon is only worth around $8 million per a year.

$11 million a year is what 20 point scorers get in the NBA. It should come as no surprise that this is what Gordon ended up receiving.

As for the final result, Gordon leaving the Bulls, I think most Bulls fans thought it would end this way. I wrote on the eve of Gordon’s free agency that Ben Gordon should remain with the Bulls, as in it would be the correct basketball move for the Bulls to keep him, but that it was very likely that he wouldn’t. Jerry Reinsdorf seemed to dislike Gordon, and Reinsdorf is a cheap owner, who wasn’t going to go into the luxury tax, because it would lessen his massive profits. The end result was very predictable, in fact, predicted by most.

Similar Posts:

• Ben Gordon Is Now a Free Agent
• Qualifying Offer Gordon’s Best Bet
• Qualifying Offer: Good or Bad Idea?
• Ben Gordon Received $11 Million Promise From Pistons?
• An Inconvenient Truth: The Bulls Have To Pay Ben Gordon…A Lot

Tags: $11 million, 2009 free agency, Ben Gordon, Carlos Boozer, Jerry Reinsdorf

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