Wayne Winston On Ben Gordon Leaving

October 1st, 2009 by Andrew Wamboldt

Wayne Winston, an advanced stats guru, discussed with True Hoop adjusted plus/minus. In this discussion, Winston mentioned the Bulls and their decision to let Ben Gordon walk.

My prediction is that the Bulls are going to stink this year. Ben Gordon and Brad Miller were their best players. They let Ben Gordon go to the team they need to beat for the playoffs? Why’d they do that?

He wanted a lot of money.
Well, he’s worth it.

Letting him go is just beyond stupid. It’s ridiculous. And who’d they pick up to replace him? Jannero Pargo? I looked at their lineups, and I guess that they’re expecting that Luol Deng can play his position. If he’s healthy — and I don’t know if he’s healthy.

Winston followed up this True Hoop post, with a post of his own on his blog, to clarify his thoughts.

On Truehoop.com I was (correctly) quoted as saying the Bulls should not have let Ben Gordon go, especially to a bitter divisional rival (Detroit). Gordon’s performance has been erratic but last year was 18th in the league in our Adjusted +/- and he was 4th in Impact, which measure how you change the chance that your team wins. If you saw the Celtics-Bulls series you saw how his clutch shooting can change a game. In 2007-2008 Gordon had a negative impact, but this could be because the team was poor and many players mail it in when the games have no meaning. His offense held up in 2007-2008 but his defense was very poor, leading me to believe he might have mailed it in near the end of the season, In 2004-2005 Gordon had the the league’s 2nd best impact!. He plays over 30 minutes a game. While below average on defense, he is always an above average offensive player. The Bulls were at their best against the Celtics with Miller, Gordon, Hinrich and Rose on the court. They won by around a point a minute with these guys on the court. This 4 man combo cannot be used anymore. Is Ben a bad influence off the court? I have no idea. But on the court he will be missed.

Looking at his 2007-2008 season Hinrich began the season in a really bad shooting slump (he shot 33% in November) and Gordon’s offensive rating was poor(Gordon shot 37%), probably because the defense could lay off Hinrich. Gordon’s defensive rating was horrible after January 1, indicating that he may have mailed it in. If he is healthy and wants to play I believe he is worth $10 million a season.

I think that Winston is correct in everything he is saying. The impact rankings are especially impressive. When I watch the NBA, Ben Gordon has always stood out to me, as one of those guys that impacts a game in a big way. His clutch shooting has won the Bulls so many games over the past few years.

In addition, Gordon’s impact is extended because of the fear he strikes into a defense. Everytime Gordon steps on the court, he is the focus of the other team’s defense. This year, the Bulls’ players won’t have the luxury of having defensive attention drawn away from them from Gordon. Can they adjust? Only time will tell.

What Winston is saying is just statistical proof for everything that people such as myself and Fred Pfeiffer have been saying for awhile, in regards to Gordon.