Many people have said that Ben Gordon would have to be an idiot not to take the Bulls offer and that he will never see that money again. Assuming the Bulls improve a bit, to around a .500 team, one would assume that if Gordon performs about the same as last year (18 PPG), he will get around the same offer. If he performs worse, he will get less, and if he performs better, he will get more.

There are two things that are big money makers in the NBA. Being a great all around big man and being a great scorer. There is something about the scoring average of a player, just the general PPG, that boosts their value so much in contract negotiations. 20 PPG seems to be the threshold that needs to be met to be a legit first option. When you begin getting in that 22-23 PPG territory, you begin looking like a lock for an allstar spot. When you start scoring over 25 PPG, people begin to look at you as one of the elite players in the game.

So this question should be posed, “Is Ben Gordon making a poor decision if he decides to take the qualifying offer?” If he has a real down year, and only scores something like 14 PPG, he will be looking at the MLE in a best case scenar

io. If he scores 18 PPG again, he will probably looking at around the same. If he scores 20 PPG, he will begin getting paid around what Monta Ellis is making. If he scores 22 PPG, he should be looking at around the same amount that Iguodala just signed for. If he scores 25 PPG or more, he could very well be looking at a true max contract.

So the rewards of taking the qualifying offer are all there. If Gordon really thinks he is an all-star level player, and plans on bringing that type of game next year, he would be crazy not to take the qualifying offer. But if he is afraid that he is really the player that he showed up as last year, or fears that the Bulls coaching staff will cut his minutes, taking the qualifying offer no longer looks so good. So this seems at first look as a high risk, high reward situation.

Fortunately for Gordon, Vinny Del Negro said on the radio last week that Gordon would be welcomed with open arms and would be a big part of what the Bulls do. Vinny expects Gordon to want to prove himself next year, so Vinny will probably give him the minutes he deserves.

So based on this assumption that Gordon will get his playing time, how should we expect Ben Gordon to perform? Based on Ben Gordon’s statistical data from January of his 2nd season to April of his 4th season, I ran a simulation which simulates what Ben Gordon might score throughout the 2008-2009 NBA Season. I used from January of his 2nd season on, because in that January, Gordon clearly took his game up to another level. I ran the simulation 1,000 times.

Here are the raw results of what Ben Gordon averaged.

10 - 0.1%
11 - 0.5%
12 - 0.4%
13 - 0.3%
14 - 0.8%
15 - 2.2%
16 - 3.6%
17 - 4.8%
18 - 13.8%
19 - 33.0%
20 - 15.8%
21 - 14.4%
22 - 2.8%
23 - 4.5%
24 - 1.0%
25 - 0.3%
26 - 0.3%
27 - 0.1%
28 - 0.2%
29 - 0.4%
30 - 0.1%
31 - 0.2%
32 - 0.2%

Or in terms of likelihood Gordon achieves at least this PPG.

10 - 100%
11 - 99.9%
12 - 99.4%
13 - 99.0%
14 - 98.7%
15 - 97.9%
16 - 95.7%
17 - 92.1%
18 - 87.3%
19 - 73.5%
20 - 40.5%
21 - 24.7%
22 - 10.3%
23 - 7.5%
24 - 3.0%
25 - 2.0%
26 - 1.7%
27 - 1.4%
28 - 1.3%
29 - 1.1%
30 - 0.7%
31 - 0.6%
32 - 0.4%

So to simplify this a bit, lets look at the odds of Gordon decreasing, maintaining, or increasing his value.

Decreases (10-17 PPG) - 12.7%
Maintains (18-19 PPG) - 46.8%
Increases (20-32 PPG) - 40.3%

When looked at this way, it becomes clear that the qualifying offer is probably a good idea. Ben Gordon has a high chance of increasing his value, while a very low risk of decreasing his value.

Now let’s break these down into smaller categories.

Significantly Damages Value (10-15 PPG) - 4.3%

There is very little risk for Gordon to significantly damage his value. If he went down into this range of scoring, the MLE would be the absolute maximum that Ben Gordon would be able to get.

Slightly Damages Value (16-17 PPG) - 8.4%

Again, there is very little risk of Gordon even slightly damaging his value next season. This would drop him into that contract that is at the MLE as a minimum, but maybe a million or two million more.

Maintains Value (18-19 PPG) - 46.8%

This is the most likely scenario for Ben Gordon. This would put him in the range of what the Bulls are offering him at this time. So Gordon, if he maintains his value, should be looking at around $56-60 million.

Slightly Increases Value (20-21 PPG) - 30.2%

Ben Gordon has a pretty good chance to slightly improve his value. This would essentially mean returning to 2006-2007 form for Gordon. In the 2007 offseason, John Paxson offered Ben Gordon a contract worth $10 million a year. John Paxson thinks with extensions, players should take a pay cut for longterm security, so in reality, Paxson probably truly valued Gordon at around $11-12 million. If Gordon reaches this level, he should be making anywhere from Monta Ellis money ($66 million / 6 years) to Luol Deng money ($71 million / 6 years)

Significantly Increases Value (22-24 PPG) - 8.3%

The chances that Ben Gordon significantly increases his value is about the same as the chance that he slightly decreases his value. When Ben Gordon enters this range, he begins to look like a lock for an all-star spot, and all-star’s generally get paid more money. This is the Ben Gordon that many Bulls fans expected to show up for the 2007-2008 season. If Gordon reaches this level, he should be looking at Iguodala money ($80 million / 6 years).

Becomes a Max Player (25+ PPG) - 1.8%

If Ben Gordon begins to average more than 25 points a game, he should be looking at a max or near max deal. This volume of scoring would make Gordon one of the elite scorers in the game. While the chances of this are small, they are hardly impossible. Ben Gordon has a better chance of achieving this than the Bulls had of getting Derrick Rose in the NBA Draft.

So based on the simulation, which was based on Ben Gordon’s statistical data, all signs point to the qualifying offer being Ben Gordon’s best possible decision if the Bulls do not increase their offer. The odds of Gordon decreasing his value are small while the odds of him increasing his value are large.

Verdict: Ben Gordon should take the qualifying offer.

With the Chicago Bulls signing of Luol Deng Tuesday to a deal, fans are left wondering, what about Ben Gordon? Past rumors have suggested that the Bulls’ ownership will not be willing to go into the luxury tax. The Chicago newspapers are reporting that Ben Gordon’s agent, Raymond Brothers, is demanding that Gordon receive as much as Deng because he has been the Bulls top scorer the past three seasons. Today, on Waddle and Silvy, John Paxson stated that he can now make Ben Gordon a more cost certain offer based on their budget sheets now that the Deng deal is done. So what might Ben Gordon’s contract numbers look like? Here is a look, by the numbers.

First, we must look at Luol Deng’s contract. Luol Deng signed a deal worth $71 million over 6 years, with the possibility of being worth $80 million after incentives. If the NBA rules that Luol Deng is unlikely to reach the criteria for his incentives, his first year salary will count as $9,372,937.29. If the NBA rules that Deng is likely to reach the criteria for his incentives, his first year salary will count as $10,561,056.11.

Next, the Bulls total salary situation should be looked at. Adding Deng’s first year salary to the rest of our contracts, assuming he does not meet the criteria for his incentives, the Bulls will be at approximately $63,491,910. Adding Deng’s first year salary to the rest of our contracts, assuming he does meet the criteria for his incentives, the Bulls will be at approximately $64,680,029. (Salary numbers are assuming the Bulls do not retain JamesOn Curry).

The luxury tax figure for the 2008-2009 NBA season will be $71,150,000. This means, assuming Deng is not determined by the NBA to be likely to achieve the criteria for his incentives, the Bulls would have $7,658,090 left to offer Gordon in the first year of his contract. This means the Bulls would be able to offer Gordon approximately $58.1 million over 6 years and be able to stay under the luxury tax. Assuming Deng is determined by the NBA to be likely to achieve the crieteria for his incentives, the Bulls would have $6,469,971 to offer Gordon. This means the Bulls would be able to offer Gordon approximately $49 million over 6 years. Ben Gordon will not agree to that deal considering he turned down an offer worth more over a period of only 5 years last summer.

It is unlikely that any of the Luol Deng likely to achieve incentive criteria numbers will have to be used. The NBA determines if a player is likely to achieve his incentives based on the previous season. Since all of Luol Deng’s performance incentives are team oriented, he is unlikely to be labeled as likely to achieve criteria for the incentives because of the Bulls season in 2007-2008.

The next big number to look at is $6,404,749. That is the amount of Ben Gordon’s qualifying offer. A first year offer of $6,404,749 equates to a deal worth $48.5 million over 6 years. Therefore, any deal less than $48.5 million causes Ben Gordon to make less money than he would if he takes the qualifying offer next year, so any offer of less than $48.5 million will be absolutely unacceptable.

If the Bulls are serious about retaining Ben Gordon, their leading scorer for the past three seasons, they will have to go into the luxury tax, unless Gordon gives the Bulls a bargain or John Paxson makes a money saving trade. Going into the luxury tax is a bit of a costly move. Not only will the Bulls have to pay double for every dollar they are over the luxury tax threshold, but they will also lose their share in the pot of tax dollars at the end of the season.

It should be expected for the Bulls to go into the luxury tax, just for one season, to retain their leading scorer for the past three seasons. The Bulls have been the most profitable team in the NBA since Jordan retired, despite only making the playoff three times and only winning one playoff series. Since the NBA introduced the luxury tax, the Bulls have received $9.2 million from other teams being taxed. Bulls ownership should just pretend that they are paying this years luxury tax with money they received in the past as the result of the luxury tax.

Ben Gordon’s agent, Raymond Brothers, have said that Ben Gordon should get what Luol Deng received because Gordon has been the Bulls leading scorer the past three seasons. Is it crazy for Ben Gordon to demand $80 million? Not exactly, if Gordon is willing to go out of his way to earn his $80 million through incentives. NBA teams can offer incentives up to 25% of players salary for a season. So if Ben Gordon signed that $58.1 million over six year deal, the Bulls could pad it up to $72.6 million with incentives. Not quite the $80 million Gordon is looking for, but definitely an improvement over $58.1 million.

The Bulls would have to give Ben Gordon $64 million in guaranteed money in order to make Gordon an offer worth $80 million. The deal would give Gordon the potential of earning $16 million in incentives. In order to make Gordon this offer, the Bulls would have to go $790,000 into the luxury tax. Are the Bulls really willing to lose Ben Gordon over the amount of money equal to a league minimum contract of a player with two years in the league? That would be an unforgivable, boneheaded move by Bulls ownership if they were to go this route.

$72.6 million is the most the Bulls will be able to offer Gordon without hitting the luxury tax. Could the Bulls do anything to make this offer more attractive? They could try offering Gordon a signing bonus. NBA teams are allowed to give players up to a 20% signing bonus. In such a scenario, Gordon would still have a base contract worth $58.1, and a potential $14.5 million in incentives, but he would receive $17.4 million from the Bulls next season, making the deal much more attractive to Gordon. While he receives $17.4 million as the result of his signing bonus next year, he would still count against the salary cap as approximately $7.66 million.

The Bulls could potentially make an attractive offer to Gordon using incentives and/or a signing bonus. However, the Bulls may need to go into the luxury tax just a little if Gordon wants more total guaranteed money throughout his contract.

All salary figures are from ShamSports.com.