In the offseason, the Chicago Bulls made a new commitment to defense. They were going to be a team that beats other teams with their defense, not their offense. However, after a dominant defensive start, the Bulls are quickly becoming one of the league’s worst defensive teams.
The Bulls are currently ranked 20th in the league in defensive rating, posting a defensive rating of 107.6. Their defensive rating is better this year, than last year, when they posted a defensive rating of 108.7. However, relative to the rest of the league, they are worse this year than last year. Last year they were ranked 18th in defensive rating.
Their actual defense is probably worse than last year’s as well. It should be taken into account that the league is worse as a whole offensively than it was last year. Teams are scoring 1.6 fewer points per 100 possessions this year than they were last year. If you adjust the Bulls defensive rating to the better offensive production of last season, than it is clear that the Bulls are probably around the same or worse defensively this year than last year.
The league wide drop in offensive production is likely a result of more team’s penny pinching. With the economy the way it is, team’s are going to be less likely to spend money to get good bench players for their teams. This problem is seen with the Bulls, who let Ben Gordon walk in free agency, did not sign Derrick Byars after training camp, and passed on signing Allen Iverson, all in efforts to avoid spending more money, and keep profits up.
But how are the Bulls worse defensively? Shouldn’t having a proper sized shooting guard in John Salmons improve the Bulls defense drastically over last year’s team, which featured the shorter Ben Gordon at shooting guard? The truth is that perimeter defense is overrated in the NBA.
Ben Gordon did everything that is needed of an NBA guard. He did a good job staying between his man and the basket, and contested shots. The difference between him, and Kirk Hinrich, who is a great defender, in what the opposing shooting guard scores and on what efficiency is going to be minimal, as ever since the rule changes before the 04-05 season, which allowed for no contact on the perimeter, good offensive guard when going up against good defensive guards usually put up their normal numbers.
Where a good defensive team is made is in the front court. Brad Miller and Joakim Noah both have negative Player Efficiency Rating differentials at the center position, where they play the majority of their minutes. Taj Gibson, who plays 42% of the team’s power forward minutes is especially bad, posting a PER differential of -9.7.
The one bright spot is Joakim Noah at the power forward position, where he plays 28.6% of his minutes. Noah has a +7.1 PER differential when playing the power forward spot.
Joakim Noah’s problem at the center position is that he is too small. He has a shorter standing reach than most centers, and because of his weight, he can have some difficulty holding position in the low post.
The Bulls should look into moving Joakim Noah to the power forward position and starting Brad Miller in order to improve their defense. If the Bulls continue to play the way they are playing, they may play themselves into a high draft pick, which could land them a real center, such as Kansas’ Cole Aldrich, who would provide a long term solution for the Bulls at the center spot.
However, the Bulls’ defensive problems are miniscule in comparison to their offensive problems. The Bulls are currently ranked 27th in the league in offensive rating, with an offensive rating of 99.5. Now there is nothing wrong with a team being a defensive focused team, but there is a problem with a team being as bad on offense as the Bulls have been.
In order for the Bulls to have an even point differential, they would need to have a defensive rating of 99.5 also. If the Bulls were to have that defensive rating, they would be the 2nd best defensive team in the league. So in order to have just an average team with an offense this bad, a team needs to be one of the league’s best defensive teams.
If the Bulls wanted to be a good team, say as good as the Atlanta Hawks of last season, they would need to have a point differential of 1.7. In order to have this point differential with this offense, the Bulls would need a defensive rating of 97.8. If the Bulls were to post that defensive rating, they would be the best defensive team since the rule changes in 04-05.
So in order to be as good as last year’s 47-35, second round and out Atlanta Hawks, the Bulls would need to be one of the best defensive teams of all time, if they were to continue playing at their current offensive level.
If the Bulls want to get better as a team, they will need to get better offensively. It is impossible to be a good team with an offense this bad
How can the Bulls improve their offense? The most obvious way is to start shooting more three point shots. The Bulls are currently last in the league in three point field goal attempts and makes. One of the simple truths of basketball is that making a three point shot is better than making a two point shot, because 3 > 2.
This is one of the main facets of an offense like Mike D’Antoni. D’Antoni encourages players to shoot wide open three point shots, even if they don’t shoot the best percentage. If a player shoots 33.3% from three point land, that is equal to shooting 50% on two point field goals. If a player only to take threes when they take jumpshots, and shot 33.3%, taking 7 three point shots a game, while making 70% of their baskets close to the basket, and taking 3 of those shots per a game, they would score at an efficient 56 TS%.
Making three pointers is key in boosting up offensive efficiency. So the best way to improve the Bulls offense will be to start hoisting up more three point shots. Rose, Deng, and Salmons need to stop passing up the wide open three point shot, as taking that shot is the right basketball play to make.
John Salmons and Luol Deng in particular need to start taking more three point shots. Salmons is a career 35.9% (53.9 TS%) three point shooter. Luol Deng has made 41.8% (62.7 TS%) of his threes over the past three seasons. These guys have shown to be good enough three point shooters to have free reign to jack up the open three point shot.
The Bulls need to implement these changes fast, because if they fail to improve their offense, they are going to be a bad team all year long.
