When the Bulls decided to let Ben Gordon walk to the Detroit Pistons this past offseason, they signaled that they were going to pursue 2010 free agency. The Bulls face one major problem, which is that they will not have enough cap space to sign a max free agent if John Salmons opts into his contract. So at the trade deadline this year, the Bulls should first look at trying to move either John Salmons or Kirk Hinrich, to ensure that they can sign a max free agent in 2010 free agency. But the Bulls shouldn’t stop there, the Bulls should work to move all three of Luol Deng, Kirk Hinrich, and John Salmons for expiring contracts. Moving all three would make the Bulls the biggest power player in the biggest free agent year in NBA history.

First, I would like to clear up some misconceptions. A recent RealGM 2010 Free Agency primer said that the Bulls would have $21.1 million in projected cap space using a $52.5 million even with Salmons opting in. I am not sure where the author got this number, but he either doesn’t quite understand all the subtleties of the CBA, has bad salary data, made some mathematical errors, or a combination of all three.

If Salmons chooses to opt in, with a $52.5 million cap, the Bulls would have approximately $11.468 million in cap space, well short of the $15.75 million needed to sign a max free agent in 2010 free agency using the $52.5 million cap. If Salmons chose to opt out of his contract, the Bulls would have $16.803 million in cap space, enough to sign a max free agent. This of course doesn’t include the Bulls draft pick, which would further reduce the Bulls’ cap space, although if the Bulls were to trade their draft pick, they could have these cap space figures.

If we were to choose to go with the 2010 plan for one max free agent, moving either Kirk Hinrich or John Salmons would ensure that we have the proper cap space for 2010 to sign a max player. Luol Deng could also be moved, but he would be a better piece to keep here to try to attract a max free agent than either Hinrich or Salmons.

However, an even better plan for the Bulls would to move all three of Hinrich, Salmons, and Deng. This would allow the Bulls to sign two max free agents, even if they were to be blessed with the salary commitments that come with the top overall pick in the draft.

How would the Bulls accomplish this feat? They could target a few separate deals moving these players for expirings. But there are two teams, the Cleveland Cavaliers and Dallas Mavericks, who could trade for all three in a single trade.

The Cavaliers could do so in a trade based around Shaquille O’neal’s massive expiring contract. Shaq has only produced 10.7 points and 7.1 rebounds per a game for the Cavs this season, and moving Shaq in a trade for talent to help the Cavs win a championship this year would probably please Lebron more than if the Cavs were to trade his good friend, Zydrunas Ilgauskus, who Lebron promised to win a championship ring for.

The Mavericks also are a championship contender who could use an injection of talent to better their chances at winning the rings. With the window closing on the Dirk Nowitzki era of Dallas Mavericks basketball, I think Mark Cuban in particular would consider such a deal to try to win a championship with Nowitzki. A trade with the Mavericks would include Josh Howard, Drew Gooden, and Kris Humphries going to the Bulls, as well as some more of the Mavericks small expiring contracts.

If the Bulls were to pull off such a trade, they would only have salary commitments to Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson, and James Johnson.

The Bulls would take a major stepback talent wise this year, and would probably slide into a top seven draft pick. The Bulls main selling point to the 2010 free agents would be that they would be able to play with Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, a top 7 draft pick, as well as another max 2010 free agent.

Here is how the salaries would work out, using the dream scenario of the Bulls winning the top overall pick.

The salary for the #1 overall pick will be $4.287 million for the 2010-2011 season. Therefore the Bulls would then enter free agency with $33.398 million in cap space.

After they sign their first max free agent, starting at $15.75 million, they will have $18.085 million in cap space.

After they sign their second max free agent, starting at $15.75 million, they will have $2.808 million in cap space.

The Bulls could use that left over cap space to either sign another established NBA player to build depth, or bring Omer Asik over from Europe. The amount of left over cap space would grow depending on how

If the Bulls are able to sign any two of Lebron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire, Joe Johnson, and Carlos Boozer, using this plan, I think they will have a pretty good team. I think signing any two of these players would make the Bulls title contenders. Of course, which two out of these six players they sign is important, because the Bulls could be left anywhere from being a lower level contender to an absolute juggernaut, but I think they will be contenders none the less. How their 2010 draft pick pans out also would play a role into what kind of contender they become, as will the continuing development of Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah.

Coming out of the offseason, the Bulls main components would be Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson, James Johnson, 2010 Max Free Agent 1, 2010 Max Free Agent 2, 2010 Leftover Cap Space Free Agent, 2010 Top Draft Pick. I think just this here could leave the Bulls ready to compete for a championship in the 2010-2011 championship. They will then have to try to convince veterans signing for the minimum that Chicago is the place they should sign, in order to add depth. I think Brad Miller is one of the expiring guys from this year’s team who would return next year on the minimum salary.

Otherwise, during the 2011 offseason, the Bulls would be able to add depth using the MLE, LLE, and their 2011 draft picks.

This is the plan that will give the Bulls the best bet at winning a championship anytime soon. The Bulls finally need to go all in for a championship, and the best way to do that is going all in for 2010 free agency.

John Paxson appeared on Afternoon Saloon on ESPN 1000 to discuss the post trade deadline Bulls.  Here is what was said in the interview:

• Has had quite a few conversations with teams over the last few weeks.  A lot of stuff gets set up over the course of the year when teams express interest in each other’s players.  Everyone gets a little gunshy until there is a deadline where you can’t make any moves.
• No blockbuster deals out there this year.  But thinks overall, when you don’t give up a starter and get two guys of quality like Brad Miller, John Salmons, and even Tim Thomas, on paper, you make an improvement.
• The move was both to make the team better this year and to set the team up for 2010.  The Bulls are taking on extra money next year with this deal.  It really was a basketball decision, but it also works out going forward that the Bulls have positioned themselves well for 2010.
• The Bulls have one other move that they might make in the next year or so that can help them even more for 2010.  If they had been totally aggressive and made one more salary type move, they would have been in unbelievable shape, but it wasn’t the best basketball move.
• In effect, did not give up a starter, as Tyrus Thomas had replaced Drew Gooden in the starting lineup.  At the very least, they weren’t going to be able to keep Gooden next year anyways.
• Will probably only have eight available bodies for the Nuggets game.  Even with that, both Brad Miller and John Salmons weren’t allowed to practice.
• Derrick Rose has been great.  Not sure how he could be any better as a rookie.  He takes everything seriously, wants to learn, and approaches the game the right way.
• Joakim Noah and Tyrus Thomas have played about as well as you could expect of them over the past month.  He doesn’t think that it’s a coincidence that it coincided with them getting minutes regularly on the floor.  He thinks that with a lot of players, when you give them consistent minutes, there is a confidence level that comes where they’re not always looking over their shoulders.
• Neither are perfect players.  Noah has deficiencies, but he is still a 7 footer who can run the floor.  Paxson thinks that Noah has been finishing better around the basket.
• Noah is going to have to get stronger.  Paxson is demanding Noah, this summer, to get in the weight room this summer and work with them.  If he doesn’t he will be fined.  Same thing with Thomas.  He’s more of a perimeter big man though.  But the NBA game is a physical game, and Paxson would like to see him make a commitment as well.
• Neither (Thomas or Noah) are allstar caliber players, but the Bulls see them developing, and that can be encouraging.

The Bulls were one of the busiest teams before the trade deadline yesterday, making three tradesk shipping out six players, and bringing back five.  Now tha the dust has settled, how do the Bulls stack up after the deadline, and what direction will they be taking the team?

Subtractions

• Andres Nocioni
• Drew Gooden
• Cedric Simmons
• Michael Ruffin
• Larry Hughes
• Thabo Sefolosha

Additions

• Brad Miller
• John Salmons
• Anthony Roberson
• Jerome James
• Tim Thomas
• 2009 San Antonio Spurs First Round Draft Pick

Starting by looking at the subtractions, the Bulls lost nothing of much significance.  Andres Nocioni was once an important cog in the Scott Skiles’ Bulls, but has really developed into a no defense chucker in the past two years.  Drew Gooden, while he could score from time to time, he was inconsistent, and not a very efficient scorer as a whole, and had weak interior defense.  Larry Hughes was no longer player, and said by some in the media to be a troublemaker.  Removing these three from the team could prove to be addition by subtraction.

Thabo Sefolosha was good sometimes, and played some good defense from time to time in his time here.  With the addition of John Salmons, he simply wasn’t going to play here.  A first round draft pick was good compensation for him.

Cedric Simmons and Michael Ruffin never played, so not much of a loss their on the basketball court.  Ruffin was one of the most active Bulls in the community season, and Simmons was very active as well, so I’m sure the Bulls will miss that aspect of having these two around, as both did a lot for the Bulls in terms of fan outreach.

Now, for the additions.  Jerome James and Anthony Roberson figure to never play in games for the Chicago Bulls, but Brad Miller, John Salmons, and Tim Thomas figure to play here.

Brad Miller is the new Antonio Davis.  That’s the way to look at this. He is the veteran big man who knows how to get things done in the NBA.  He can pass and shoot the midrange jumper, which will be big in the Bulls offense.  The Bulls also look to get a lot of leadership out of Miller. He will be a good guy to have around the team.

John Salmons is the second guy from the Kings that the Bulls acquired.  One thing to note, do not read too much into what Paxson said at the press conference yesterday.  Salmons is not the newly annointed great shooting guard of the Bulls.  Think back to the 2006 draft, and the press conference that followed it.  Paxson raved on and on about Viktor Khryapa.  The guy hardly played for us, and ended up being bought out.

This is not to say that John Salmons will not play.  He definitely will, and will be a rotation player.  He has a lot of talent, and I think starting next year, will be that elusive big guard, that backs up both Derrick Rose and Ben Gordon.  The bonus with John Salmons is that he can play at the small forward position as well, without the Bulls being undersized.  As long as the Bulls have four guards for these last 28 games of this year, Salmons role will probably be stunted.  But next year, if the Bulls trade Kirk Hinrich, which they nearly did at the deadline, then John Salmons will find himself in a big minute sixth man role.

Salmons isn’t quite as good as Paxson advertised.  Paxson was raving about his defense.  Just because Salmons is tall, doesn’t mean that he is a good defender.  On the season, Salmons has a D-Rtg of 116 and 0.0 defensive win shares, which makes him one of the worst defenders in the entire NBA.

You have to wonder how a guy like Salmons will hold up offensively when he joins a team like the Bulls, and is actually asked to exert some type of effort on defense.  With Salmons actually having to play defense, will we see his scoring efficiency fall?  Only time will tell.

Offensively, Salmons is pretty good.  He is averaging 18.3 PPG on 57.3 TS%, which makes him a really good scorer this year.  The one thing the Bulls needed was more efficient scorers, as they don’t have many guys that can score efficiently.  Salmons brings that component to the Bulls, joining Gordon as a player who has a TS% greater than 57%.  Salmons is shooting 41.8% from three point land.  Shooters are always welcome.

The big question is whether Salmons is just a one year wonder or not.  Prior to this season, the most Salmons has scored was 12.5 PPG in a season.  Outside of this year, Salmons hasn’t been a very good three point shooter.  Players as old as Salmons typically don’t make the kind of leap he has made this year.  This is eerily similar to the situation with Mike James in Toronto, an older player explodes for a big year on one of the worst teams in the league.

Does this mean John Salmons is a scrub in disguise?  No.  But he is not starter material, given his near league worst defense, and the fact that he has a better scorer and defender ahead of him in the lineup in Ben Gordon.  Salmons could make a good sixth man for the Bulls over the next few years, but anything more is just overreaching with him.

Tim Thomas is a decent acquisition.  He will be able to spread the floor with his jumpshot similar to what Nocioni did during his time here.  Thomas will do this in limited minutes at the power forward position.

What did these trades do for the Bulls in terms of building for the future?  It was simply asset building.

In terms of liquid assets going into next year, the Bulls have Brad Miller’s expiring contract, Jerome James’ expiring contract, Tim Thomas’ expiring contract, young prospects Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah, the rights to Omer Asik, their own 2009 draft pick, and the 2009 draft pick of the San Antonio Spurs.

In addition to those, the Bulls also have Kirk Hinrich and John Salmons, who some teams are sure to be interested in.

The Bulls now are loaded with tradeable assets.  Paxson is ready to swing a blockbuster trade.  It is just a matter of waiting for the time to come.  It could happen at the 2009 NBA draft, or prior to the 2010 trade deadline.

The small flaw with this plan is that it depends on the actions of other teams in the league.  But I feel this is a brilliant plan.  When Amare Stoudemire, Chris Bosh, Carlos Boozer, and others start becoming available on the trade market, Paxson is ready to make a deal.

That was kind of the plan going into this trade deadline.  The Bulls tried to get Amare Stoudemire for the expiring contract of Drew Gooden and some young prospects.  It didn’t work out, but Paxson has reloaded the Bulls with expiring contracts to give it another go next year.

Following this trade deadline, the Bulls future looks much brighter to me.  A key to all of this, is for the Bulls to re-sign Ben Gordon.  He is their best scorer, and will be crucial in this team becoming great.  Yes, Gordon isn’t good enough to lead a team by himself.  But as one of the best three pointers in the game, the fourth best fastbreak scorer in the NBA this season, and a tradtionally clutch scorer, he is exactly what you want out of one of the complementry players around Derrick Rose. As long as the Bulls re-sign Ben Gordon, they will be in a position to become a championship caliber team with one, big blockbuster trade at the deadline next year.

The Sporting News is reporting that the trade that was made between the Chicago Bulls and Sacramento Kings could be rescinded because of Drew Gooden’s groin injury.

Kings-Bulls deal in jeopardy?

We’ve had one deal rescinded when Tyson Chandler failed to pass his physical with the Thunder — might a similar scenario develop with the Bulls-Kings trade? The Sacramento Bee reported that Kings basketball president Geoff Petrie indicated that Drew Gooden has a groin injury that may be problematic in terms of the physical.

The Kings acquired Gooden from the Bulls on Wednesday in a seven-player deal that sent Brad Miller and John Salmons to Chicago.

Gooden’s physical is scheduled for tomorrow; he has been out with a groin problem since mid-January.

If the Bulls were not to make any other deals, and this one were to get rescinded, that would make for one really bad deadline for the Bulls.

If the Bulls have no other moves planned other than the Miller deal, it is probably a good thing that the Kings rescind this trade, as the trade by itself, leaves the Bulls in a bad financial situation for next year. But still, this would make for a disappointing deadline if the Bulls were to make no personnel changes.

Update: 1:19 PM

According to the Sporting News, the trade is not in jeopardy, and will go through.

The trade that sent Tyson Chandler to the Thunder in exchange for the expiring contracts of Joe Smith and Chris Wilcox has been rescinded.

Something that came up during Chandler’s physical caused the Thunder to re-examine the trade. After consulting outsiders, the Thunder determined that the best course of action was to rescind the trade.

This opens up two possibilities for the Bulls. First, it is often awkward for a team to have their players come back to them after being traded. The Thunder may look again to trade Joe Smith and Chris Wilcox to avoid this situation. The Bulls could look to the Thunder to unload Kirk Hinrich or newly acquired John Salmons for expiring contracts to help relieve the Bulls’ guard glut.

If the Thunders stand pat with their expiring contracts, they will once again become players in the Ben Gordon sweepstakes.

The Bulls could again inquire about Tyson Chandler. Prior to Chandler being traded to the Thunder, the Bulls rejected a trade of Drew Gooden and Joakim Noah for Chandler. The Bulls could now look at trying to pry away Chandler for a reduced price.

We will continue to update on the situation if the Bulls choose to get back in the hunt for Tyson Chandler.

The Chicago Bulls agreed to a trade with the Sacramento Kings that will send Andres Nocioni, Drew Gooden, Cedric Simmons, and Michael Ruffin to Sacramento in exchange for Brad Miller and John Salmons.

John Salmons is the newest Chicago Bull. (photo by Arranging Matches on flickr)

According to the Chicago Tribune, the Kings are expected to deal Ruffin to the Blazers in exchange for Ike Diogu.

On the surface, the deal puts away any chance of a two way deal between the Chicago Bulls and Phoenix Suns for Amare Stoudemire. Now in order to get Amare Stoudemire, the Bulls would have to get a third team involved, potentially the Minnesota Timberwolves.

The Bulls still may deal with the Timberwolves, even if it isn’t in a three way, but rather a trade that would send Kirk Hinrich to the Timberwolves for Jason Collins and an unknown piece.

I would say to expect Hinrich to be traded. The Bulls no longer have the “insurance for in case Ben leaves” excuse, as John Salmons is their new piece of insurance. I don’t think Hinrich will be on the team after tomorrow, but I could be wrong. Bulls management has had difficulty letting him go up to this point.

If the Bulls are to complete the rumored Kirk Hinrich trade, it would show that the Bulls are serious about making a run in 2010 that involves Ben Gordon. The Bulls could even preempt 2010 at the trade deadline next year, with the massive expiring contracts of Brad Miller and Larry Hughes, if he isn’t moved in the next 21 hours.

The Bulls committed to Gordon as the starting shooting guard, even when Kirk Hinrich came back, so it’s hard to see John Salmons taking over that role. John Salmons will presumably take the sixth man role. I would expect Brad Miller to take over the starting center position once he gets some practice time in with the team.

It is good to see the Bulls finally get rid of Andres Nocioni.  I loved him his first two seasons in the league, and he really was up there with Gordon and Hinrich as the most important players on the team in that 2005-2006 season.  But he has really deteriorated to an on court cancer, and it will be nice to see him go.  Drew Gooden wasn’t a very efficient offensive player and a poor defender, which made him a poor overall big man, so I don’t think the Bulls will miss him at all, especially with Brad Miller replacing him.

So are the Bulls preparing to make a splash in 2010 free agency? This move and the potential Kirk Hinrich trade are a strong indication that they plan on doing so.

Will Brad Miller have a new job as the Bulls starting center after this Thursday? (photo by theotherway on flickr)

According to Marc Stein of ESPN.com, a potential trade involving Drew Gooden and Andres Nocioni for Brad Miller and John Salmons is developing.

The Kings likewise have talked with Chicago about a still-developing swap that would net Andres Nocioni and Drew Gooden’s $7.2 million expiring contract for Miller and swingman John Salmons.

It is hard to tell what the Bulls strategy is. Because Salmon’s contract runs past 2010, you aren’t really creating a scenario in this Nocioni dump, to retain Ben Gordon while becoming a player for 2010. But with the acquisition of Salmons, the plan may be to just let Gordon walk in free agency. And if that were to happen, what’s the point of the trade?

This is not a knock on John Salmons as a player. He can score efficiently with volume. But to have Salmons come in and Gordon go out would have to be seen as a net negative for the Bulls because of the intangibles that Gordon brings to the Bulls, most notably, his clutch scoring.

The Bulls could explore other options to getting John Salmons involved with the team that are not at the expense of Gordon. If the Bulls do the rumored Kirk Hinrich and Sefolosha swap to Minnesota, then there would be room for Salmons as a sixth man at the shooting guard and small forward positions.

The Bulls could also make Salmons the starting small forward. Luol Deng simply isn’t getting the job at small forward, and really hasn’t for the past two years. This trade could allow the Bulls to dump the often injured Deng.

Adding another efficient scorer in John Salmons would be a good thing at the team. But if his minutes come at the expense of the Bulls most efficient scorer, Ben Gordon, than it does nothing to help the team. If his minutes come at the expense of an inefficient scorer, such as Luol Deng, then Salmons could definitely help the team.

The other part of the trade is Brad Miller. He is nothing special, but he would be a good place holder center for 2010.

Getting rid of Nocioni and Gooden will be good for the Bulls. Gooden is okay offensively, but brings horrid interior defense. Andres Nocioni wanders aimlessly on defense, while chucking up shots on offense. The Bulls really do need to say good riddance to both of them.

This trade is solid. It would be better if paired with a trade of Luol Deng or Kirk Hinrich. This trade obviously means no Amare Stoudemire in a two way trade, but would not discount the possibility of a three way trade.

Don’t be surprised if you see the Amare Stoudemire trade talks heat up again tomorrow. Talks have been ongoing, and Phoenix’s financial situation hasn’t changed in the past 24 hours. This rumored Brad Miller trade is just one of the many back up plans that the Bulls have pursued, and it is a solid one.

Also, the trade, as reported by Marc Stein, pushed the Bulls into the luxury tax.  That is even if John Salmons waives his 15% trade kicker. Therefore, it is likely that there would have to be additional players moved in this trade, or that this trade would be accompanies by another trade, in which the Bulls shed some salary.