The Chicago Suntimes talked to Wayne Winston, who has a new book out, Mathletics. In his discussion with the Suntimes, Winston talked some Bulls.

”In my mind, [letting go of Ben Gordon] is going to go down as one of the dumbest moves in sports,” he said, ”especially to the team that’s going to probably beat you out for the last playoff spot.”

Winston called the Bulls’ first-round playoff series against the Celtics last season the greatest series of all time and had a theory about why the Bulls came up short.

After breaking down the minute-by-minute matchups in the series, he found the Bulls were at their worst when forwards Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah were on the court at the same time. In the 127 minutes the two played together, the Bulls were outscored by 71 points.

But Winston said the Bulls’ lineup of Gordon, Kirk Hinrich, Derrick Rose, Brad Miller and either Thomas or Noah — which they had on the court for 56 minutes in the series — outscored the Celtics by 42 points.

”You can’t play your best lineup all the time,” he said. ”It just doesn’t work that way. But Noah and Thomas on the court together never worked the entire season. It’s just not a good lineup.”

Is letting Ben Gordon go one of the dumbest moves in all of sports? I don’t know about that, I guess it depends how you define all of sports. Is it a dumb move? I definitely think so. If he is talking about just in this past year in sports, it is probably one of the dumbest. I would have to look at some of the other dumb moves in sports history. It also has to be how you define moves. If you look at it just as what team’s do once they have talent, then yes, it may be up there. But if it’s just any move, you can look at a myriad of moves more idiotic, such as the Pistons drafting Darko Milicic over Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, and Dwyane Wade or Michael Jordan drafting Kwame Brown with the top pick in the draft.

None the less, I think if you disregard the hyperbole, Winston is correct, and that is letting Ben Gordon go was a dumb move, especially when he was willing to re-sign for $9 million a year at one point.

The second part about Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah is spot on as well. The downfall of the Bulls after their return to relevance in the John Paxson era was the decline of their interior defense. When Ben Wallace declined, the Bulls interior defense declined. The Bulls were left with with a front court of Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah, who both are power forwards. Neither has the strength to play the center position and in Noah’s case, I don’t think he has the vertical reach to play it effectively either.

Every second the Bulls played with both Thomas and Noah in the Celtic’s series, they were at a disadvantage. Neither could hold court with the Celtics’ wide bodies of Kendrick Perkins and Glen Davis. Perkins and Davis were able to back both players down on the low post, and push around both guys to gain a rebounding edge.

82games.com has by position ranks for each team in the league.

Here is how the Bulls ranked out at the power forward and center positions defensively.

Power Forward:

Points Allowed: 24th
Rebounding: 28th
Free Throw Attempts Given: 22nd

Center:

Points Allowed: 29th
Rebounding: 23rd
Free Throw Attempts Given: 26th

The Bulls front court was atrocious last year. They gave up a lot of points, fouled the other team a lot, and failed to rebound the ball effectively. The Bulls defensive woes were all in the front court. Defensively, the Bulls ranked solidly in all of the perimeter positions.

The reason for the Bulls’ defensive woes last year were unfairly lumped on Ben Gordon. They should have been lumped on Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah (and to a lesser extent Derrick Rose).

The Bulls should have foresaw this problem. Here is what I wrote in my preview for the Bulls vs. Celtics series.

In the keys to the series:

Battle of the Front Courts - Boston has one of those front courts, even without Garnett, that could give the Bulls trouble. Brad Miller, Joakim Noah, and Tyrus Thomas need to body up the Celtics’ big men, and secure rebounds. The Celtics have those big men with big wide bodies who get after the rebounds that give the Bulls trouble.

and then my prediction for the series:

Prediction

Celtics in 7 games.

I think the Bulls will play some good basketball in this series, but that they will come up short, on the road in game seven. I think Derrick Rose and Ben Gordon will have some big games in the series, helping the Bulls get victories by themselves. I think Salmons will have a big game or two, but will also have some games where he brings nothing, because of his groin injury. Paul Pierce will probably have a great series scoring the ball, as Salmons is in no condition to play great defense against Pierce. But I think the Bulls will lose the series in the front court, as the Bulls will give up too many second chance points as they let the Celtics’ wide bodies get too many offensive rebounds.

I think when push comes to shove in the playoffs, Joakim Noah will be a hindrance as a starting center. He could start at power forward and be fine, or be one of those guys who plays both big man positions, but only plays center against backups and smaller centers. But against the big centers that all of the elite teams have, Noah will be eaten alive.

Wayne Winston, an advanced stats guru, discussed with True Hoop adjusted plus/minus. In this discussion, Winston mentioned the Bulls and their decision to let Ben Gordon walk.

My prediction is that the Bulls are going to stink this year. Ben Gordon and Brad Miller were their best players. They let Ben Gordon go to the team they need to beat for the playoffs? Why’d they do that?

He wanted a lot of money.
Well, he’s worth it.

Letting him go is just beyond stupid. It’s ridiculous. And who’d they pick up to replace him? Jannero Pargo? I looked at their lineups, and I guess that they’re expecting that Luol Deng can play his position. If he’s healthy — and I don’t know if he’s healthy.

Winston followed up this True Hoop post, with a post of his own on his blog, to clarify his thoughts.

On Truehoop.com I was (correctly) quoted as saying the Bulls should not have let Ben Gordon go, especially to a bitter divisional rival (Detroit). Gordon’s performance has been erratic but last year was 18th in the league in our Adjusted +/- and he was 4th in Impact, which measure how you change the chance that your team wins. If you saw the Celtics-Bulls series you saw how his clutch shooting can change a game. In 2007-2008 Gordon had a negative impact, but this could be because the team was poor and many players mail it in when the games have no meaning. His offense held up in 2007-2008 but his defense was very poor, leading me to believe he might have mailed it in near the end of the season, In 2004-2005 Gordon had the the league’s 2nd best impact!. He plays over 30 minutes a game. While below average on defense, he is always an above average offensive player. The Bulls were at their best against the Celtics with Miller, Gordon, Hinrich and Rose on the court. They won by around a point a minute with these guys on the court. This 4 man combo cannot be used anymore. Is Ben a bad influence off the court? I have no idea. But on the court he will be missed.

Looking at his 2007-2008 season Hinrich began the season in a really bad shooting slump (he shot 33% in November) and Gordon’s offensive rating was poor(Gordon shot 37%), probably because the defense could lay off Hinrich. Gordon’s defensive rating was horrible after January 1, indicating that he may have mailed it in. If he is healthy and wants to play I believe he is worth $10 million a season.

I think that Winston is correct in everything he is saying. The impact rankings are especially impressive. When I watch the NBA, Ben Gordon has always stood out to me, as one of those guys that impacts a game in a big way. His clutch shooting has won the Bulls so many games over the past few years.

In addition, Gordon’s impact is extended because of the fear he strikes into a defense. Everytime Gordon steps on the court, he is the focus of the other team’s defense. This year, the Bulls’ players won’t have the luxury of having defensive attention drawn away from them from Gordon. Can they adjust? Only time will tell.

What Winston is saying is just statistical proof for everything that people such as myself and Fred Pfeiffer have been saying for awhile, in regards to Gordon.